Oshkosh Corp.

Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery • Industrials • Oshkosh, WI, United States • OSK (NYQ)

920 502 3400 1917 Four Wheel Drive, Oshkosh, WI 54902, United States

Quarter: Q3 2025 Reported: August 1, 2025 Sentiment: Negative

Oshkosh Corporation provides purpose-built vehicles and equipment worldwide. The company operates through three segments: Access, Defense, and Vocational segment. The Access segment designs and manufactures aerial work platform and telehandlers for use in construction, industrial, and maintenance applications; and towing and recovery equipment, which includes carriers, wreckers, and rotators, as well as provides financing and leasing solutions, including rental fleet loans, leases, and floor plan and retail financing. This segment also offers equipment installation and sale of chassis and service parts. The Defense segment engages in the manufacture and sale of heavy, medium, and light tactical wheeled vehicles and related services for defense. The Vocational segment offers custom and commercial firefighting equipment, fire apparatus, and emergency vehicles, including pumpers, aerial platform, ladder and tiller trucks, and tankers; light, medium, and heavy-duty rescue vehicles; and wildland rough terrain response other emergency response vehicles. This segment also produces and sells aircraft rescue and firefighting vehicles; refuse and recycling collection vehicles and components; and IMT-branded field service vehicles and truck-mounted cranes, frontline communications-branded simulators, command vehicles and other communication vehicles, and front-discharge concrete mixer vehicles. The company sells its products through direct sales representatives, dealers, and distributors. The company was formerly known as Oshkosh Truck Corporation. Oshkosh Corporation was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Oshkosh, Wisconsin.

Analysis Summary

The Q3 2025 earnings call transcript for Oshkosh Corp, provided as an 8-K filing, serves primarily as a detailed exposition of risk factors rather than a report of specific financial performance metrics for the quarter ended June 30, 2025. Actual revenue, net income, and EPS figures for Q3 2025 are not provided within this document, which refers to a separate news release and slide presentation for these details.

Strategic Initiatives and Business Segment Analysis:
The company's strategic direction is implicitly revealed through the risks it highlights. In the Transport segment, the USPS NGDV contract is a major focus, with $841 million in deferred pre-production costs. A significant concern is the estimated $180 million excess of deferred contract costs over future profits on existing orders (51,500 units). The conclusion of domestic JLTV production in H1 2025 necessitates a successful NGDV ramp-up to offset sales and operating income, a process fraught with production scaling, supply chain, and workforce risks. The elimination of the Remote Combat Vehicle program by the DoD in Q2 2025 and the loss of the JLTV follow-on contract to a competitor in February 2023 underscore intense government contract competition and budget pressures. The Access segment faces challenges from highly cyclical markets and the expiration of the Caterpillar telehandler license in Q4 2024, which contributed $315 million in sales in 2024 and impacted H1 2025 sales. Acquisitions like AeroTech (August 2023) and AUSACORP S.L. (AUSA) (September 2024) are part of a growth strategy, but their integration and benefit realization carry inherent risks. The company continues to invest in R&D ($169 million in 2024) to develop new products, including electric-powered vehicles, to meet evolving market demands and regulatory pressures.

Management Commentary and Forward Guidance:
While direct management quotes are absent, the extensive risk disclosures serve as implicit commentary, signaling a cautious outlook. The company acknowledges the potential for up to $50 million in adverse tariff impacts on 2025 operating income and a negative $22 million impact on Transport segment operating income from H1 2025 cumulative catch-up adjustments on long-term contracts. The focus is clearly on mitigating these risks and successfully executing the NGDV contract and new product development.

Competitive Positioning and Market Trends:
Oshkosh operates in highly competitive and cyclical markets. The loss of the JLTV follow-on contract highlights competitive pressures in defense. In Access, the loss of the Caterpillar license requires the company to strengthen its own telehandler offerings. Broader market trends include increasing demand for lower greenhouse gas emission products, pushing R&D into electric vehicles, and the impact of geopolitical tensions on trade policies and supply chains. Consolidation within customer and dealer bases is also noted as a trend that could impact pricing and margins.

Risk Factors and Concerns Raised:
The document extensively details numerous risks, including market cyclicality, USPS contract execution challenges, trade policy changes (tariffs), raw material price volatility, supplier dependency, labor issues, government contract reliance (competition, budget, termination), severe weather, customer/dealer consolidation, competition, acquisition integration, product development challenges (especially EVs), foreign exchange fluctuations, international expansion difficulties, changes in contract estimates, credit risk, goodwill impairment (Pratt Miller $5.7M in Q2 2025, following $51.6M in Q2 2024), financing costs, tax liabilities, and cybersecurity threats. These risks collectively paint a picture of significant operational and financial uncertainty.

Analyst Q&A Highlights:
The provided text is an 8-K filing and does not include an analyst Q&A section.

Key Highlights

• Significant deferred pre-production costs of $841.0 million for the USPS NGDV program, with an estimated $180 million excess of deferred costs over future profits on existing orders.
• Anticipated direct adverse impact of tariffs on 2025 operating income up to $50 million, net of mitigation efforts.
• Production on the domestic Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (JLTV) contract concluded in the first half of 2025, with NGDV sales expected to offset, but with inherent risk.
• Loss of Caterpillar-branded telehandler sales (which accounted for $315 million in 2024) contributed to lower Access segment sales in H1 2025.
• Goodwill impairment of $5.7 million for the Pratt Miller reporting unit in Q2 2025, following a $51.6 million impairment in Q2 2024.
• Transport segment operating income negatively impacted by $22 million in H1 2025 due to cumulative catch-up adjustments on long-term contracts.
• Company is actively pursuing growth strategies through acquisitions (AeroTech, AUSA) and new product development, including electric-powered vehicles, despite associated risks.

Financial Metrics

eps

Not provided in transcript

YoY: N/A

revenue

Not provided in transcript N/A

YoY: N/A

guidance

net income

Not provided in transcript N/A

YoY: N/A

Stock Performance (90 Days)

Data through Dec 29, 2025

Layoff Events

Earnings Calls

Positive Signals

• Commitment to new product development and technology, including electric-powered vehicles, to meet evolving customer and regulatory demands.
• Strategic pursuit of growth through acquisitions (AeroTech, AUSA) to expand business strategy.
• Efforts to mitigate tariff impacts, despite an anticipated adverse effect.
• Expectation that NGDV sales will offset the decline from JLTV production conclusion.

Risks & Concerns

— USPS NGDV Contract Performance: Significant uncertainty regarding future orders, production scaling costs, supply chain reliability, warranty costs, and potential contract termination, posing a risk to the $841M deferred asset and profitability.
— Highly Cyclical Markets & Economic Sensitivity: Demand for products across Access, municipal fire, refuse, and airport segments is highly sensitive to economic conditions, construction spending, and customer financing, leading to potential adverse effects on sales and profitability.
— Government Contract Dependency & Competition: Substantial portion of business relies on U.S. and foreign government contracts, facing intense competition (e.g., loss of JLTV follow-on), budget uncertainties, program cancellations (e.g., Remote Combat Vehicle), and risks associated with fixed-price contracts.
— Supply Chain Disruptions & Raw Material Volatility: Vulnerability to shortages, price increases, and delays from third-party suppliers (e.g., engines, batteries, commodities like steel/aluminum), which can increase manufacturing costs and reduce profitability, especially on existing backlog.
— Loss of Key Revenue Streams & Integration Challenges: The expiration of the Caterpillar telehandler license ($315M sales in 2024) and the inherent risks in integrating recent acquisitions (AeroTech, AUSA) and achieving their anticipated benefits.